The probability is extremely low in your example, so low nobody has observed it and so low that it is just plain logic to not do it. On the other hand the probability of Trump hiding stuff and hiding more than the rest is nowhere close to that number.
And I fail to see how that example has anything to do with the idea that fear shouldn't guide you whe you can use logic.
But we already talked about this.Trump has put himself on the Rep team. Therefore, I can't support him.
The point is, whether he says he is "independent" or he says he is "republican", he has his unique set of views. So how about looking into them instead of looking at what he labels himself since he doesn't care about the label anyway?
In other words, "he aint in rep team". Even the rep team doesn't consider him a true rep. So at this point I don't see any logic to not consider him because he's a rep, even if that mattered just by itself.