SCOTLAND - THE VOTE - Thursday 18th Septmeber 2014

[Lasermad]

SO what does the WORLD think , of Scotland , the referendum ? The rest of UK , my English friends
am I a traitor to UK if I vote YES to leave UK ?

The people of Scotland on Thursday VOTE democratically whether to leave the UK ( United Kingdom )
and become an independent country. THIS THURSDAY THE 18th SEPTEMBER 2014

1) If the vote is NO , it will be the only country to have ever rejected independence
2) THE QUEEN will remain head of state for Scotland
3) We will likely have to come up with a new currency
4) Bank of England has said Scotland CANNOT use the pound
5) EU says Scotland will have to APPLY - So no quick Euro
6) OIL is about 15% of GDP
7 The NO campaign has been low key , but its hard to get excited about a Status Quo ( when the quo aint that great)
8) The YES campaign has been exciting , very visible , upbeat , and like evangelists
9) Latest polls are tight with 51% for NO , 49% for YES
10) However based on my own experience it seems as though it should be a LANDSLIDE YES

MY OWN view is i will be voting NO , I feel i would be betraying my grandfathers who fought for the UK
in 1917 & 1945 wars to save the UK from occupation, maybe i do have some distant ancestor relatives who fought for FREEDOM
in the days of william wallace , but i dont remember them , i dont have pictures of them !

I feel without the pound , without the EURO and with a commitment from SNP leaders to walk away from
Scotlands share of the UK DEFICIT ( if we are not allowed to use the pound ) we would never be trusted
by foreign investors . Scotland has already been held in artificial recession for 2 years as the rest of the
UK improved as BIG investors like to know basic things like what currency and style of government will
be in place , a further 5 years of uncertainty would bring not recession , but a depression !

I also worry Scotland is one of the most socialist parts of UK , which is great in theory , we are kind
people and like to look after as best we can people in trouble , but I fear a new government would
flip even further left , socialism is a great idea , if money grew on trees.

Claims are we wont have a problem as we have OIL , but its a gamble , depending on what side you
listen to the oil will last anywhere from 20-100 years , for me that argument is kinda irrelevant , i worry
changes in tech will cause the oil price to drop to point making it uneconomical to obtain in the
expensive north sea. Vast tech changes in underwater electricity generation and battery power
could make OIL an old fossil fuel nobody wants , just 30-40 years ago the UK employed 100,000
people ( ONE HUNDRED THOUSAND PEOPLE ) in mines to obtain coal , now less than 500 people
in UK are involved in coal mines , things can change and they can change FAST ... google "gigafactory"
..... now if the USA can make money manufacturing electric cars , china can no doubt replicate
that and create 100 "gigafactories" , personally i think the need for OIL will wane and price
will collapse .. so i dont think OIL will be the saviour a lot of scots think , and are relying on.

Scotland has had its own parliament with lots of control and powers since 1999 , these would likely
be extended in event of a NO vote : https://www.gov.uk/devolution-settlement-scotland

Lastly there's a commitment to throw out TRIDENT , ( nuclear weapons ) out of Scotland but
join NATO , a nuclear alliance ..it seems hypocritical and NIMBY ( not in my back yard ) for this
to be considered the way forward

My hearts says YES !!!! brave heart style but i personally will be voting NO for realistic , pragmatic
reasons and also cos Im BRITISH just as much as im Scottish .... However it looks like the people
of Scotland will vote to break away from UK , and thats sad , and the UK government is to blame
for allowing it to happen ! the refusal to allow DEVOMAX as an option , and they have essentially
sleepwalked into losing Scotland as quite simply they have not been at the party

I think it will come a surprise to English , Welsh and Irish people that this is actually going to happen
as the UK has basically sleepwalked into this WHILE the YES campaign have been winning hearts
and minds through emotional pleas and literally YES parties in the streets

TIME WILL TELL

Anybody happy to get rid of Scotland out of UK ?

[Bradfo69]

I don't know what rock I've been under but, only just heard about this tonight on the news. I've never been to Scotland but, have been to England four times. I have an ex-significant other whose daughter got married to a Scot and is now living in Edinburgh. It would be interesting to hear her views. My perception is that I can understand how Scotland would feel sort of neglected by England and have a desire to become independent. The closest thing to a situation like that I've experienced is Quebec wanting to separate themselves from Canada since I've spent so many years going to Canada on vacation.

I'll need a little more info to make a decision but I'm very interested in folowing this thread over the next couple days and hear the UK... err... England members views.

[Laserhobbit]

Hi Paul,

First thank you for the very complete and eloquent explanation of the impending decision. I think most people who know me know I am not very interested in politics, but from my badly informed standpoint I think some points are being missed by the UK as a whole and would welcome anyone else's views:

1) Was it not a banking group based in Scotland who was a major player in the UK's part in the global banking scandal, RBS group?
2) Was it not the UK tax payer who bailed this group out?
3) Is the bank not still majority owned by the UK people?
4) Did the UK not invest people time and money in the oil that Scotland now consider to be their birthright?
5) Don't you think it is more about one man's crusade to become a president of a country and his own political aims rather than a true parliament lead initiative?
6) What would the break do to the global economy? Do you think we need another destabilisation?
7)Surely the term "United Kingdom" says it all and united we stand divided we fall? Not such a weak point as some people think?
8) Is it not true that the vast majority of Scottish business leaders think it would be the worst thing to happen to business in the country?
9) Scotland is always and has been for a few hundred years considered by the English to be a separate country, with its own laws and as you say extensive self government.
10) It seems that this cycle of falling out with England happens every few hundred years.
11) German re unification is seen by many to be one of the cornerstones of its political and commercial success. The cost of this was high and although I accept the reasons behind it were very different do you not think this does show the "strength" of a "United Kingdom"?
12) It has already been stated many times that a number of businesses who have their headquarters in Scotland would relocate to the UK due to the risk of political instability, the lack of the pound, EU membership etc. This will make the commercial appeal of Scotland seem very precarious.

That being said I believe it is for the people to decide and from my standpoint I agree with you that their will be regrets, not least in remembrance of the last two world wars and who we fought side by side. I do not mean to seem I am marginalising Scotland, just looking at from someone who lives nearer to the border than most in the UK it seems a little like a political whim which will come back and bite the Scottish people in the bum.

I do hope we can remain "United" but will not lose any friends of business contacts if you as a nation decide to give it a go. Just my 10 sprigs of heather

Cheers/Sláinte

Steve

[Lasermad]

Guys like this are the reason the YES vote is likely going to win ( Tommy Sheridan ) hes a very passionate speaker , if your interested in the issues i think this is a good quick ten minute watch to get up to speed on the issues and pros and cons. Facts are UK and Scotland in particular the past couple of years have reversed in standard of living , and its just simply very hard to get passionate about staying the same , the staus quo , when things are generally poor , so it has been an uphill struggle for the NO campaign as it aint sexy and exciting to be a NO voter

[mojo]

Most off-topic post ever

I'm also not in politics. But in my opinion Scotland is too small to really survive alone in a changing world. It's the same with Europe. Many people (especially the more conservative) do think that most of our todays problems are because of the EU. That's wrong and becomming independent will not solve any problems. Best example: the debts... most of todays arguments are totally bulls*!? and shows that most of our politicians do not even understand the basics of money. No debt, no money, that's it.

Also imagine a small country with 5M inhabitants has some serious economical/bussiness issue with a BIG nation having 1000M+ inhabitants. Do you think the big one will listen?

[soforene]

As the Scots are traditionally "careful" with their money all this talk of rising prices if they go it alone will put many off.

[Laserhobbit]

Paul,

I agree us Brits have just not been passionate enough about wanting you guys to stay. In the rest of the Uk it just seems like we are just saying "Ok guys you decide, nothing to do with us" I think this is wrong and if anyone in the Uk feels strongly about this they should speak up. In this case, as part of the Uk, the Scots who will vote yes are doing the right thing. But as for the guys in England, Wales and Northern Ireland are just a little too unconnected to the debate. I think, unfortunately , that if the "yes" vote wins then it will be these people who will be very hostile to the newly created Scotland when we have another economic meltdown in the UK and the global markets fall back into recession. I think most of the UK, and here, I do include Scotland, cannot imagine the effect this will have to the recovery from the economic nightmare of the last few years. I think our PL friends over the pond will be the only ones to celebrate if on Friday the value of sterling drops through the floor compared to the $.

I also think the "yes" crowd remind me very much of my 18 year old daughter who has just left home to go to university. For the last few months it has been all about the benefits of being away from home, the freedom, the own rule, the lack of boundaries, the newly independence, the new identity. But as soon as she arrived on Sunday it was about where is the safety net, where is the support, where is the money coming from, why do I feel I am all by myself. I think Scotland will feel this, if they decide to go it alone. I know there will be time, but will there be enough and are the people really ready. Just like with my daughter I would say you have to let people try and find their own identity. But for me Scotland has always been its own country within the UK and I cannot see risk versus reward working out. But then again I am from the UK, British. But hardly ever would I describe myself as English. If I ask someone in Scotland the same I think the answer would be that they are Scottish, never British or from the UK, so maybe they have already left?

Reading through this you may think I am more political than I claim, but the reality is if the decision is yes there will be sadness for the reduction in size of the UK, but more than this there will be an overriding surprise that the vote has gone that way. In many ways it is the same as the upcoming debate over the Uk remaining in the EU, I think most can find many reasons to stay and many reasons to leave, but the reality is that the Uk will be very precarious if it was outside the EU. Not an educated or carefully researched opinion, more just a "feeling" based around the risk. I personally feel if I were living in Scotland this would have a very profound effect on my vote and I would be very wary of voting to leave the UK. But as I am not and do not live in Scotland I will await the result and see what is decided. Whatever happens Scotland is a good neighbour and that will never change. But the ripples for the world economy of another country without a strong or even existing currency and unknown Central European alliances is my main concern if the vote is yes. But I am sure if this is the case the rest of the UK will do whatever they can to support the newly independent country.

Whatever happens it will be a very interesting few days.

Cheers/Sláinte

Steve

[planters]

Lasermad,
Thanks for the review. The issue is clearly complex and this is made obvious by the ambivalence of those of you who live in Scotland and the UK. I think the debate would be less important if it was only about the economic or political consequences over the next 10 years or so. But, this is not likely to be limited to such a short time horizon.
The history of working/fighting together during the world wars can be seen a little differentially. The US fought WITH Russia to defeat Hitler and WE don't seem to remember that mutual struggle romantically. Our two nations had a common interest without there being a common history.
The EU ain't doing so well. It isn't the common currency or efficiencies, but rather the enabling of broader socialism that is destroying the economic power of this union. Socialism is awful. It is only appalling to the naive, shortsighted or corrupt. If Scotland is more socialist than the UK in general then it has likely been enabled by the long association with larger Brittan and disassociation may be a painful, but long term correction in this dependence. No offense, but Tommy comes off, to me, as a bit of a loony. If he really believes that Trotsky had it right then I leave him to you, but if he is only espousing this position to appeal to Scots looking for an expansion of a socialist state then what is his real agenda? I suspect it's worse.
This may all prove to be moot in the long run:
http://buchanan.org/blog/braveheart-6964

[colouredmirrorball]

Socialism is awful. It is only appalling to the naive, shortsighted or corrupt.

Why is it bad? Do you actually believe socially uncorrected capitalism is a viable way to sustain a society? Economic growth is always a good thing and certainly not to be limited by such trivial things as happiness, health, nature preservation, environment, or limited resources?


I'm not a nationalist in any way. I think it's silly to form a state based on the idea of a nation of people. There are no clear boundaries. How do you define a culture anyway. If it was up to me, all borders would vanish. No more arbitrary bureaucracy because you want to go from place A to place B and place B happens to be in another country than place A. No more quarrels over which culture should belong to what country.

I could go on for a while about how nationalists are the root of all evil but maybe in this case it might be a good thing. A clean start, away from the bankers in London. Build new laws which favor the Scots and Scotland, not a few CEOs. Maybe Scotland could become one of those few civilised countries where not everything is aimed towards making the lucky few richer at the cost of everything else.

[planters]

Maybe Scotland could become one of those few civilised countries where not everything is aimed towards making the lucky few richer at the cost of everything else.

Not to be factious, but those countries would be a good starting point for a comparison.

No more arbitrary bureaucracy because you want to go from place A to place B and place B happens to be in another country than place A. No more quarrels over which culture should belong to what country.

I don't see this as possible. I agree that this is a good goal and like immortality, the pursuit can be beneficial, but human nature as demonstrated in part by ISIS, for example, spans the range from very cooperative to predatory and cruel. Often it is necessary to look for common heritage as a refuge and when movement was primitive national borders were those such as a coast that could be defended.

Socialism fails because it's primary premise depends on honesty. I work to support you as best I can and thereby expect you to reciprocate. From each...to each. The common result is more efficient than pure competition, but it breaks down as soon as some Einstein decides that working half as hard is a huge boon for himself, but the net result to society is miniscule. The winners are the first ones through the gates and the least honest receive the greatest rewards. Capitalism also tends to favor the least honest, but assumes from the outset that self interest is present. No one is lead to the false belief that everyone will act in a selfless manner.

I actually hope that the vote is "yes". Not to promote a socialist, but to demonstrate that nationalism for the sake of nationalism...rah rah rah, is not guaranteed. I linked to Pat Buchanan's article because I believe his last point is the most chilling. Nations that act in a suicidal manner should not be supported and if that means other associations such as heritage or economic interests prevail then good.