Brexit

[neskusen]

For 40 plus years the socialists and the globalists have had the advantage of support from media, entertainment and government insiders. We on the other side have had to work twice as hard and be twice as smart just to be heard and even then were ridiculed.

Basically we are xenophobic racist pigs because we don't want to invite all the homeless people in the neighborhood into our house and support them as our children.

[Draco]

Attachment 50209

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Now that's an interesting picture, as i remember it was the statue of liberty and not big ben, but i wonder if it would still work lol

[Grix]

I think the UK have shot themselves in the foot with this one. But to be honest I don't think they will actually end up leaving after all. I think something like this might happen:
1. They submit a request to leave,
2. Time passes
3. They get a response with strict requirements, like maybe they won't be able to partake in the single market if they leave
4. Meanwhile the brexit gang starts getting cold feet
5. Because of 3. and 4., a lot of people call for a revote
6. A revote is held, and the outcome is that the people don't want to leave anyway, so the UK pulls the request to leave.

[planters]

I think the UK have shot themselves in the foot with this one

You in Norway are not part of the EU. Do you plan to have a referendum in your country to decide on whether to join?

They get a response with strict requirements, like maybe they won't be able to partake in the single market if they leave

I have seen nothing that threatens this. Switzerland (a non-member) enjoys vigorous trade with the EU. Germany has said that retaliatory trade restrictions would hurt German businesses.

2. Time passes

And, Trump is elected. The wave of ant-globalist sentiment continues across Europe and additional referendums are held.

Brexit won. Remain lost. Why is the question how did they mess it up, get it wrong, they should reconsider rather than let's see how this portends for the future success of nationalism around the globe?

[neskusen]

They get a response with strict requirements, like maybe they won't be able to partake in the single market if they leave

This seems very unrealistic scenario. UK might have a small territory but it has the 5th largest national economy in the whole world and 2nd largest in the EU. EU is not in a position to participate in such a "take it or leave it" style negotiation with the UK. They not only will risk too much economically by making treats like this but also create a very bad image for themselves for the rest of the EU members by showing them that they can go as far as to basically threaten with "sanctions" any member states who will want to leave. That will create a huge outcry, I don't think they'll do something like that.

[Grix]

You in Norway are not part of the EU. Do you plan to have a referendum in your country to decide on whether to join?

It is unlikely, it seems most people have little interest in joining. But I personally do.

I have seen nothing that threatens this. Switzerland (a non-member) enjoys vigorous trade with the EU. Germany has said that retaliatory trade restrictions would hurt German businesses.

This seems very unrealistic scenario. UK might have a small territory but it has the 5th largest national economy in the whole world and 2nd largest in the EU. EU is not in a position to participate in such a "take it or leave it" style negotiation with the UK. They not only will risk too much economically by making treats like this but also create a very bad image for themselves for the rest of the EU members by showing them that they can go as far as to basically threaten with "sanctions" any member states who will want to leave. That will create a huge outcry, I don't think they'll do something like that.

There have been influential people predicting it though, like this guy: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...-schauble-says

[neskusen]

I personally don't take the word of "influential people" very seriously, especially when they have opposing views from each other. Just a recent example, look how well they predicted Trump.
It's a simple situation to me: if you risk you will lose even more (a big trade partner + respect of other EU members), if you don't, you get to keep what you have remaining. It's like guessing a random answer for $1000000 in Who want's to be a millionaire. Not worth it.

[Grix]

The thing is, it's not a given that both parties lose if EU does not offer them to stay in the single market. Sure, both parties lose if they do actually leave and then not stay in the single market, but EU could deny them access merely as a strategy to make them stay in the EU, which would result in both parties winning. It's a risk but it could pay off and so it's a valid option.

[neskusen]

EU could deny them access merely as a strategy to make them stay in the EU

I think I responded to this but I'll try again:
As I said they wouldn't because it's too risky, in two ways. One is they might actually leave, the second is they will create a public outcry from everywhere if they use this "take it or leave it" negotiation and show to the rest of the EU members they can use scare tactics to push their agenda. I don't think EU really wants its other members to get the impression that they are in an abusive relationship.
British are not stupid to not see this in a hypothetical scenario as bluffing.

[planters]

The thing is, it's not a given that both parties lose if EU does not offer them to stay in the single market.

Yes it is. If trade (the original premise for the EU) is stifled because a willing partner (Brittan) is to be punished for leaving the EU then this assumes that the EU member nations were not benefiting from their previous trade with Britain. This is unreasonable.

It's a risk but it could pay off and so it's a valid option.

It's just like agreeing to play Russian Roulette. It is a valid choice, but a very poor one.

It is unlikely, it seems most people have little interest in joining. But I personally do.

The British also decided they have little interest.