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Thread: Could It Be It's The End of Our World?

  1. #71
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    We all have to be actors in a really fucked up sci-fi series and play our parts. This might go on for more than one season. Get way into character of the ones who save lives. It might take a while but all that builds to a finale that is soooooo worth the wait.
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  2. #72
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    There is a possible error when thinking how many tests are currently available vs number of people that can be tested.
    IF we have 200,000 tests that is NOT how many people can be tested.
    Some people test neg but want more tests.
    SO with that and the fact that when a person with the virus is 'cured' they will always get a second test once neg---SO that would mean way less than 100,000 tests made and maybe the number would be 50,000 tests OR even less.

    ALSO-- anyone in jail or prison is many times more likely to be infected with COVID 19.
    Perhaps they should have seen this is another GREAT reason to NOT break any laws.
    BUT many will ignore this or even think they can break laws now w/o worrying about being jailed. They put themselves in the position.
    Let most of them stay locked up---IMHO.
    BUT I am in favor of releasing those jailed with very minor 'crimes' like possession of pot --- IF just those are released, we will have plenty of room for the rest.
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  3. #73
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    quote:
    Steve it bothers me that you even know that video exists......ahem
    Incredible sense of space I have to say that.[/QUOTE]

    It bothers me that Youtube's screwed up algorithm sends me teenage stuff like that, really nasty rap and heavy metal videos, and political trype all the time, when it has nothing to do with what I like to watch. I mainly watch machining and aircraft videos, with the odd dance video from a group of older Russian professional dancers. Plus some really good folks who teach Boogie Woogie piano to anybody who walks through a certain train station.

    What do I get suggested?, Stuff like that. When it does send me a machining video, it is consistantly from the worst, most dangerous, professional machinist I have ever seen.

    I posted it, because the level of skill shows amazing talent when I'm dealing with an amazingly sad world.

    Steve


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  4. #74
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    And now we return to the Gloom and Doom Channel where we'll hear our blue tasseled buddy Zerubbabel deliver an important end time message...



    His garments get rattier and filthier with every video...
    Once milk has been poured over corn flakes, the clock starts ticking.

  5. #75
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    8000 people die normally everyday on average in the USA. So essentially this will double the death rate for about 2 weeks. 8000*12.5=1000000. There are 330M people in USA. Thatís 0.03% of the population. If the death rate for covid is 1.5% that means 100000=1.5% infected so 98.5% didnít die of those infected. So 66 million people will get infected. Thatís 20% of the population infected. That means 80% of the population didnít get it and. Still vulnerable. There will be a round two until we have a vaccine. Hoping this is seasonal. Then we have 6 months to get ready and get a vaccine out there.

    Iím thinking that there will be candidate vaccines by then that they can make in small batches to blunt where it erupts. That might hold it down for rest of us. When they lift the social distancing, if there if still a virus around it could spark an additional peak in areas.

    This isnít going to be over for a long time. If you look up numberphille on YouTube he shows you how to make your own model. Itís not hard and letís you play along. I like this one. https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

    if 8000 people die a day it takes 113 years to turn over the population once.

  6. #76
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    Approximately 20,000 people die every year from the FLU,
    their are restrictions in place to limit this version of the FLU from spreading.
    have faith people!!
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  7. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by carlos3621 View Post
    Approximately 20,000 people die every year from the FLU,
    their are restrictions in place to limit this version of the FLU from spreading.
    have faith people!!
    Yes, there are restrictions in place, but people NEED to heed them!
    Once milk has been poured over corn flakes, the clock starts ticking.

  8. #78
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    The problem I see over and over again is people not understanding exponential growth. Last week they were talking about how COVID-19 has killed more people than the 9/11 attacks. This was when we were at ~ 3000 deaths in the USA. But today we're over 10,000 deaths in the USA, and the curve keeps trending upwards...

    That's why early action is so important. And because we failed on that task, it's going to get worse before it gets better. That sucks, but it's the truth. Maybe 10,000 deaths doesn't sound so bad to some people right now. (!) But if the curve doesn't flatten out, even the most jaded are going to be rudely surprised when reality catches up to them.

    In the long run I agree that a vaccine is likely, and that will more or less put an end to the spread. But in the mean time, remember that the Flu kills less than .1% of the people who get it. COVID-19 is killing between 2 and 7 percent of the people who get it right now. So at a minimum, it is 20 times more lethal than the Flu. This is why people need to stop thinking of it as "just the Flu". It's not the Flu, it's a serious respiratory illness with a scary chance of killing lots of people. (Looking at you, Carlos)

    Remember that if you are infected, your best odds right now are that it only kills 1 in 50. Your worst odds are that it kills 1 in 14. 1 in 14. Does that sound like the Flu, to anyone? Good. Just making sure we're all on the same page here.

    Now let's continue doing what we can to make damned sure we don't get more people infected. Because over 350,000 people in our country have already lost that battle. (Currently 350,226 active cases in USA alone.)

    Adam

  9. #79
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    All good points Adam and I agree,

    Quote Originally Posted by buffo View Post
    In the long run I agree that a vaccine is likely, and that will more or less put an end to the spread.
    However I'd just like to highlight (not to you): vaccine != cure
    As they are obviously meant as a preventative measure, and at time of writing there are current ~1.3M confirmed cases worldwide; that coupled to the current trends + "odds" make for some sombering statistics.

    All the best,
    Dan
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  10. #80
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    Quote Originally Posted by danielbriggs View Post
    at time of writing there are current ~1.3M confirmed cases worldwide; that coupled to the current trends + "odds" make for some sombering statistics.
    Completely agree, Dan. This is what I was referring to when speaking about the rude awakening that is still to come for some people. We absolutely *need* to get a handle on this thing before it overwhelms our medical facilities. 2% mortality sucks bad enough, but it could grow beyond 10% if the hospitals can't function.

    Be safe pal...

    Adam

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